A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
