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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as Beijing escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.